Writing up my investment thesis for DeSo in 2023. Putting this out there for the future to see how wrong or right I might be. Please criticize me and tell me how I'm wrong. Seriously.
Always great to write down thesis and many points to discuss.
In this comment I'll just discuss risk/reward. In general with social - we know risk = very high and reward = very high so ratio is very high/very high. Still an asymmetric bet because max risk as an investor is zero(unless leveraged) and upside is unbounded.
Now, the main question is if the current team actions/plan increases/decreases risk or reward.
I would say that the more generalized infrastructure approach decreases the risk of $DESO going to zero but increases the risk of not hitting a home run(most home runs start with very specific high-demand use cases). Another way to say this last "increase risk" part is decreasing the reward.
So the ratio components have changed to high/high instead of very high/very high, but the ratio "number" hasn't changed.
So does this change the thesis? A bit because it puts it in a different bucket for me. The goal for the investment is different now that it is even more of an infrastructure play... value will accrue to it first but more of the value will be captured by the app layer in the long run. Want to be early on $DESO but will need get into the future top apps to experience its full potential for investment return.
This wasn't the case when the blockchain and the primary social app were essentially the same, even though it was always an L1 with the potential for many other successful apps. Now it relies more on these other apps for adoption.
this is really great to see and I share many of the same thoughts.
a community-driven "Investment Thesis" blog or wiki would be an extremely valuable resource and would make it easy for people to share when spreading the word about DESO.
this is a great foundation to build from. well done @0xAustin!
Thanks for sharing your DeSo thesis. It's very detailed and thorough. I really ought to do something like this for my portfolio as well...
I would add that I think it's important to ask who's been dumping DeSo over the last two years and to speculate on why this is. If those same people, such as early VCs or miners, still hold large bags and the token gets a new influx of users/money, will they cash out again??
Where do you find this "toxic group" of users? Most such users have left (at least for now).
Not sure if I am in that category. But, at some point in the last year or so, my perspective has changed and I've realized that if I think of this project and team as someone building a centralized Web2 project, the updates they share and the feedback they gave are truly a breath of fresh air.
There is an occasional talk about Web3 and involving other teams to build on DESO (like Nader's recent Reddit proposal), but then, they barely engage with the teams that do respond including our project (@Squadz). So, at times, it becomes a bit uncertain if this is because they are busy or because they don't trust these teams to deliver or they just have missed the post.
For me, this is the biggest red flag that might get me to change my belief in DESO combined with what I've seen as the core team's struggling to build and market a killer product on their own.
Having said all that, I am still looking at this as a 0/1000 bet and have around 15-25% of my crypto portfolio and potentially 2-4% of my net worth in DESO. Depending on how the proposals are executed upon, I might reduce my exposure or maybe even increase it.
Wait and Watch Mode for me.
PS: Love the details of your investment thesis. Is there a set format you start with to ensure that you look at it from all perspectives and also don't let your biases creep into it.
Thank you for the tag! Always interesting to see how others joining later view DeSo. Always inspiring when that view is positive. As far as toxic OG lol we’re like an old married couple that keeps secrets to themselves. We’ve been through a lot and “you had to be there” to understand.
DeSo Investment Thesis 2023 by 0xAustin
Writing up my investment thesis for DeSo in 2023. Putting this out there for the future to see how wrong or right I might be. Please criticize me and tell me how I'm wrong. Seriously.
View this post at diamondapp.com/u/0xAustin/blog/deso-investment-thesis-2023-by-0xaustin
Mentions: $deso $500k
#blog
I really appreciate all the thoughtful feedback I've received so far!
Up to 20k $deso tokens now. LFG...?
Currently up to over 25k $deso at an average cost around $8.
Always great to write down thesis and many points to discuss.
In this comment I'll just discuss risk/reward. In general with social - we know risk = very high and reward = very high so ratio is very high/very high. Still an asymmetric bet because max risk as an investor is zero(unless leveraged) and upside is unbounded.
Now, the main question is if the current team actions/plan increases/decreases risk or reward.
I would say that the more generalized infrastructure approach decreases the risk of $DESO going to zero but increases the risk of not hitting a home run(most home runs start with very specific high-demand use cases). Another way to say this last "increase risk" part is decreasing the reward.
So the ratio components have changed to high/high instead of very high/very high, but the ratio "number" hasn't changed.
So does this change the thesis? A bit because it puts it in a different bucket for me. The goal for the investment is different now that it is even more of an infrastructure play... value will accrue to it first but more of the value will be captured by the app layer in the long run. Want to be early on $DESO but will need get into the future top apps to experience its full potential for investment return.
This wasn't the case when the blockchain and the primary social app were essentially the same, even though it was always an L1 with the potential for many other successful apps. Now it relies more on these other apps for adoption.
Great blog !!!
this is really great to see and I share many of the same thoughts.
a community-driven "Investment Thesis" blog or wiki would be an extremely valuable resource and would make it easy for people to share when spreading the word about DESO.
this is a great foundation to build from. well done @0xAustin!
Thanks for sharing your DeSo thesis. It's very detailed and thorough. I really ought to do something like this for my portfolio as well...
I would add that I think it's important to ask who's been dumping DeSo over the last two years and to speculate on why this is. If those same people, such as early VCs or miners, still hold large bags and the token gets a new influx of users/money, will they cash out again??
Where do you find this "toxic group" of users? Most such users have left (at least for now).
Not sure if I am in that category. But, at some point in the last year or so, my perspective has changed and I've realized that if I think of this project and team as someone building a centralized Web2 project, the updates they share and the feedback they gave are truly a breath of fresh air.
There is an occasional talk about Web3 and involving other teams to build on DESO (like Nader's recent Reddit proposal), but then, they barely engage with the teams that do respond including our project (@Squadz). So, at times, it becomes a bit uncertain if this is because they are busy or because they don't trust these teams to deliver or they just have missed the post.
For me, this is the biggest red flag that might get me to change my belief in DESO combined with what I've seen as the core team's struggling to build and market a killer product on their own.
Having said all that, I am still looking at this as a 0/1000 bet and have around 15-25% of my crypto portfolio and potentially 2-4% of my net worth in DESO. Depending on how the proposals are executed upon, I might reduce my exposure or maybe even increase it.
Wait and Watch Mode for me.
PS: Love the details of your investment thesis. Is there a set format you start with to ensure that you look at it from all perspectives and also don't let your biases creep into it.
You and @bidaskspread should team up and post this stuff on other platforms.
It could definitely catch fire that way.
Thank you for the tag!
Always interesting to see how others joining later view DeSo. Always inspiring when that view is positive.
As far as toxic OG lol we’re like an old married couple that keeps secrets to themselves. We’ve been through a lot and “you had to be there” to understand.