hallo world

Focus is key.

我的个人加密投资框架：

创始人
清晰、简洁的愿景
参与、分享、公开构建
如果没有一个有清晰愿景的可见创始人/团队，这是一个问题
它们可以是匿名的，但最好不是（只有一个中本聪）
产品/用例
潜在用户，不一定是当前用户
我喜欢看到当前用户和用户增长，但如果看到 10k 用户增长到 20k，这不一定立即重要
重要的是，该产品有可能达到大规模采用，或者成为大规模采用的基础设施。
创始人和核心团队需要能够清楚地阐明产品是什么，它解决了什么问题，以及谁将使用它。
目前的FDV与我认为可能的
无论是在下一个牛市还是下一个十年
FDV 不是模因，与 2021 年的流行情绪相反:)
十年内需要 100 倍的潜力，否则我宁愿只购买 btc/eth
已经建造或即将发货的产品与当前价格
我不喜欢投资一个想法或承诺
需要有一些实际构建和运输潜在有趣和有用的东西的历史
最好的情况是当一个团队有运输历史，目前正在进行大规模升级，但价格走势一直很糟糕时
过去运送真实产品的历史，同时继续在熊市中建立
下行和风险保护
最坏情况
趋向于零或完全爆炸的可能性有多大？
国库、跑道、收入、烧钱率
社区
分享强大的创始人信息/模因/想法
信息不能只来自创始人/中心团队
早期投资者
谁在暴利准备倾销给我？！
拥有“名牌”投资者既是好事也是坏事
这个可能很难找到，但必要的信息
代币经济学/代币的价值捕获
价值获取既是最重要也是最不重要的事情
需要有一条可行的方法来获取代币的价值
但是，代币今天不必捕获价值或直接收入。
了解代币供应、流通与 FDV、代币解锁等。
收入/价值必须累积到代币中，不能有单独的股权或进行私人投资的其他级别
需要寻找的大事是早期的风险投资人/投资者持有什么：
中心化实体的股权或您持有的相同代币
#1 对我来说，危险信号是早期投资者/团队是否持有与代币不同类型的股权，或者价值是否可以在代币以外的任何地方累积
不受欢迎或讨厌的叙述
这个很奇怪，但这是我寻找的东西
如果某些东西在流行的加密圈子中不受欢迎、讨厌或被忽视，那么这可能是一个当前价格可能与未来机会相去甚远的机会

我将使用我目前的一些个人投资来强调上述框架以及失败的个人投资。最后，我将把这一切带回我和许多其他人的一切开始的地方：Btc和Eth。

我不会对这里讨论的任何项目进行超深入或技术性的研究。对于这些单独的项目中的每一个，还有其他更好的资源可以做到这一点。我写作的目的是在评估加密领域的潜在投资时分享我的思考过程。对于任何这些单独的项目来说，这并不是一个好的资源。我在这里分享的内容甚至可能存在一些“错误”。

目前的个人投资用来突出我的框架：

Fxs （Frax）
索拉纳
符文
德索

投资失败：

露娜（我知道，真是个白痴，谁会投资这么愚蠢的东西？！

与大男孩一起结束（BTC / ETH）

首先，我们将上述框架应用于我当前的一些投资。我个人在所有这些方面都担任相对较大的职位，所以我显然是有偏见的。这是我的免责声明。

Fxs （Frax）：

创始人：
山姆·卡泽米安
清晰、简洁的愿景，他有效地传达了
致力于与实际解决问题的用户一起构建真正的产品
不断与社区、投资者、用户互动，并在公共场所进行交流
小型核心团队 （8） 继续不懈地构建和运输
他们都非常热情和清晰地传达了他们的信息
让我想起了DeSo的小团队
产品/用例
在基础层面使用稳定币构建完整的 DeFi 生态系统
如果你相信DeFi有未来，Frax是对整个DeFi堆栈的明确赌注：
稳定币（包括LSD）
AMM/掉期
借/借
未来的以太坊L2，Fraxchain
他们的产品非常复杂，在这里无法完全解释，但在我看来，这是最引人注目的 DeFi 项目。
目前最好的去中心化稳定币选项
最佳以太币LSD“稳定币”迅速获得采用，具有最高的一致收益率
经过实战考验的 DeFi 协议已经幸存下来，并继续创新以变得更好、更安全
清晰的市场/用户采用率正在稳步增长
目前的FDV与我认为可能的
600米电流 FDV
仅Frax USD稳定币就有巨大的潜在市场（系绳/圈）
更不用说以太坊 LSD、DeFi 生态系统和未来的 L2，它们都为 FXS 代币带来了价值
随着以太坊生态系统的发展，我可以看到Fxs即将到来：
在牛市中，未来10-2年内3b MCAP
未来十年内达到 100B MCAP，使其具有 100 倍+ 的潜力
已经建造或即将发货的产品与当前价格
Frax 是仅次于 DAI 的第二成功、经过实战考验的去中心化稳定币，但设计更好、资本效率更高
团队有构建使用过的好产品的历史和安全的历史，这在当今的DeFi中很少见
熊市期间交割
AMM和贷款市场（Fraxswap和Fraxlend）
FrxEth：我认为LSD是最好的设计和始终如一的最高产量
目前正在建设和发货
用于 frax 和 frxeth 的 V2，进一步改进和去中心化
Fraxchain：面向 frax 生态系统的 DeFi 重点 L2
凭借这种运输以及构建新产品和改进现有产品的历史，价格走势一直处于下降或持平状态
在我看来，当前价格并不反映未来价值
下行和风险保护
中央团队回购5美元左右的外汇，使其短期内不太可能跌破5美元
这在一定程度上限制了下行空间，并有很大的上行空间
当前产品和用户实际为FXS代币创造收入
投机，牛市狂热的潜力没有FXS那么高，但我认为下行空间和风险低于其他项目
黑客攻击或安全问题随时可能破坏这个项目的价值，这就是为什么我不喜欢一般不是“强化”协议的 DeFi 投资
他们目前没有长期成功所需的采用水平，而且有可能永远不会发生。
他们的大部分国库都是他们自己的代币，目前的收入不足以长期维持。
社区
有一个强大的核心社区，分享创始人和核心团队的使命和愿景
大多数社区都是更老练的投资者，然而，前传统人士没有很高的“模因”潜力进入投机狂热。
出色的播客、内容创作、新用户入门教育材料
早期投资者
所有团队和早期投资者代币现已解锁，并且已经解锁了一年多
任何获利并想要出售的人此时都这样做了
这里的供应增加来自流动性计划，这些计划主要由协议收入支持并且分布良好
代币经济学/代币的价值捕获
所有协议收入都归FXS持有者所有，没有单独的股权或其他价值累积的地方
由于是具有直接收入的DeFi产品，因此其估值可能类似于基于“收益”的传统公司
既是好事也是坏事
好：
有一个真正的产品，用户产生收入
非常高的潜在收入，低费用，自动化，使其成为理想的“公司”
坏：
其他代币可能具有的有限投机狂热潜力
实际上可以限制上升空间，因为估值更像传统公司
不受欢迎或讨厌的叙述
Frax 绝对不受欢迎，但与一些早期的 DeFi 协议（如 Maker、Curve、Lido 和 Aave）相比，它的估值更低。
我认为Frax比这些更受欢迎，更成熟的项目拥有更有希望的未来路线图，并且具有更高的上升空间。
与 Frax 相比，其他主要的 DeFi 项目坐视不理，没有构建太多或非常缓慢的构建。
总的来说，DeFi多年来一直没有一个好的叙事或价格走势，如果DeFi再次升温，Frax可能是最好的选择之一。

Conclusions: What should we do?
So we talked about a lot of stuff here, but why should you care about any of this? Well, there are lots of reasons, but one is particularly simple: If you get in front of the trends I've outlined above, I think you stand to make a lot of money. Yes, you'll also contribute to changing the world for the better, but there are lots of ways to do that, and this particular way of doing it is very, very lucrative at the same time, which is a big plus. So what are the highest-value things you can do right now to benefit from these trends? I have two proposals.

Start a cryptocurrency hedge fund
The first and lowest-risk option is to just start a cryptocurrency hedge fund and invest in the coins that we think have the highest probability of becoming a medium of exchange. You'll have to navigate around bubbles and short-term demand spikes, but I'm confident that a long-term strategy that just goes long undervalued coins that have high potential to become a medium of exchange, and goes short overvalued ones that obviously don't have long-term potential, will do extremely well. Particularly, I think preparing to make big bets on the first actually legitimate price-stable coins that come out presents the best path to high returns.

Start a legitimate price-stable coin
It's also possible that nobody else will have the combination of motivation, vision, and expertise necessary to actually make and market the first actually legitimate price-stable coin. If you believe this is the case, then the best path forward might be to either just do it ourselves, or start trying to seed fund people to do it while also trying to get big-name VCs to go in with us. Honestly, I love this stuff so much that I wouldn't be averse to just leading the effort to start one of these coins myself.

What the adoption curve looks like
Now, you're probably still skeptical of the potential for long-term adoption of cryptocurrencies as a medium of exchange, even with the TPS improvements, and with the radical innovation in price-stable coins. So below I'm going to paint a clearer picture of exactly how cryptocurrencies will come into mainstream use. Obviously there's a lot of speculation involved, but I really think there's a strong chance reality will follow a path similar to this.

A reliable USD-pegged or US treasury-pegged cryptocurrency will be created. The first step is for a reliable price-stable cryptocurrency to be created, backed by a group of legit investors. Some will argue that this already exists in the form of BitShares or USD Tether, but BitShares, in my opinion, doesn't have strong enough support in terms of its investors and dev team, among other issues, and USD Tether isn't really a cryptocurrency because it's centralized. It will probably take Sequoia or Google Ventures backing someone to make a price-stable currency really catch on, but I'm confident it will in the long run because the value proposition is so strong (read on).
A seamless way to convert from cryptocurrency to local currency will be set up. After a price-stable currency is created there needs to be some way to buy it using USD or some other local currency for people in other countries. This isn't hard to set up, and the team that builds the price-stable currency can just do it. Furthermore, cryptocurrency exchanges are generally happy to add currencies to their list of tradable instruments when they're backed by good investors.
Some country will try to inflate its way out of a crisis. The locals of that country will stop wanting to hold their country's tender. This is where things get interesting: I actually think the first people to adopt USD-pegged cryptocurrencies will be people in foreign countries . Although people in foreign countries generally hold their savings in the local currency, the situation changes when their country encounters a monetary crisis. During a crisis, particularly one in which the government becomes insolvent, central banks have an incentive to devalue their local currency in order to effectively forgive the debt their local government has incurred. This happened to an egregious extent in the Weimar Republic after World War I, but it happens today in many developing countries as well, and may even happen in some developed countries with high levels of government debt like Japan. In the past, the locals couldn't do much to escape their local currency's inflation because banks in their country couldn't hold USD or other inflation-resistant assets for them. With a price-stable cryptocurrency available, however, the game becomes much, much different. Anyone with an internet connection can go online and create a digital wallet that they can then use to hold cryptoassets. Yes, an exchange will need to be set up in their country for them to be able to buy the price-stable cryptocurrency, but cryptocurrency exchanges already exist in most countries, and they're much, much easier to set up than banks. Once acquiring inflation-resistant assets becomes easier, I expect the next country that tries to devalue its currency will see its population pursue a massive shift into cryptoassets. Seem far-fetched? Well, consider that people already flock to bitcoin whenever there's uncertainty in their local markets. The biggest consumers of bitcoin are the Chinese, and it's mainly because they're tired of all the games the government has been playing with the RMB for decades. The only thing stopping people from holding their savings in bitcoin during times of crisis is the price volatility. If you create a price-stable coin that pegs itself to something real, like USD in the short-term, you eliminate the largest barrier preventing people from piling into cryptocurrencies during a time of crisis. Yes, countries can try to impose capital controls that forbid people from buying cryptocurrencies-- but it's unclear to me that the legislative processes will move fast enough to stop the capital flight in time. If they don't legislate extremely quickly, local governments will face push-back from their populus, which won't want to lose its access to secure, inflation-resistant cryptoassets. In short: Once a reliable, stable cryptocurrency is created, I expect the next country that tries to inflate its way out of a crisis will see massive capital flight into this currency.
Payment processors will add functionality to process major cryptocurrencies. This is a bit more speculative, but once there's a sufficient number of people who understand the value of price-stable cryptos, before even any crisis occurs, I expect payment processors like First Data will start adding functionality to accept price-stable cryptos. The reason is that there's actually an extremely strong incentive for payment processors to do this because it allows them to stop relying on, and therefore stop paying fees to , its downstream partners: the payment networks like Visa/Mastercard and the issuing banks. Sure, people won't want to use this functionality at first because they won't want to forfeit their credit card rewards-- but once a crisis hits, the rewards won't be worth it compared to the inflation resistance afforded by price-stable cryptoassets.
People will realize there's no incentive to hold local currency at all anymore. Once you can hold your savings in a price-stable cryptocurrency and buy things locally with a price-stable cryptocurrency, the incentive to hold local currency disappears.

The long-term drivers of cryptocurrency prices
So what does it take for a cryptocurrency to be valuable in the long-term? In my book, it has to have one (or both) of two simple properties, which I'll describe in detail below.

Useful as a store of value. This property means that a coin is useful as something you can keep your savings locked up in. In that sense, it's the "gold 2.0" use-case, and even though I think it will be a driver of the long-term value of one or a few coins, I don't really take this property very seriously when considering whether or not to invest in a coin. Why? Because I'm not really interested in speculating on or investing in gold 1.0 (i.e. normal gold). Yes, some people make a lot of money doing that, but at the end of the day I don't want to spend my life being a judge in a Keynsian beauty contest . That being said, I want to make it clear that I do think this will be a big driver of the price of at least one cryptocurrency asset in the future, and for that reason I can't deny it as a driver of long-term prices in general. Why do I think it's a factor? Because the fact that gold has been popular for literally thousands of years as a store of value leads me to believe that society will most likely find it useful to have a digital store of value, and I think cryptocurrencies will serve this need extremely well. So what price can we ascribe to a coin that we think would be useful as a store of value? Like I said, I don't really think you can easily price something like gold in a rigorous way, but people who believe in the utility of stores of values would give you the following upper bound on a cryptocurrency's price, solely based on the store-of-value use-case:
Assume a single cryptocurrency, say bitcoin, completely replaces gold, which currently has a market cap of ~7.6 trillion USD. Yes, this is a wild assumption, but we're computing an upper bound here.
Take the total number of coins issued for this cryptocurrency. In bitcoin, the number of coins is capped at 21,000,000.
If the coin replaces gold, we can compute an upper bound for its price, assuming people don't lose millions of coins, by simply computing (market cap of gold) / (total number of coins). For bitcoin, this would come out to ~$361,904 per bitcoin

How I got into the space
Before I explain how I think cryptocurrencies should be valued, I think it's useful to understand my background.

I've been interested in cryptocurrencies since the very early days-- a time when bitcoin faucets would just give you entire bitcoins for free to raise awareness about the currency, and a time when a pizza cost 10,000 bitcoins (yes, 10,000 ). In 2013, I got really into it and built a mining computer with two high-end graphics cards on Princeton's campus and managed to successfully mine ~22 bitcoins. Around that time I even set up a blog dedicated to explaining bitcoin, mostly for my friends . But even with all the interest I had back then, I was never at any point convinced that cryptocurrencies would lead to a fundamental shift in the way we transact-- there were too many issues at the time , particularly related to high volatility, fixed supply, lack of a central bank, and low transactions-per-second, that were complete deal-breakers for widespread adoption as a medium of exchange. The limitations in the macroeconomics of bitcoin just didn't "add up" to it becoming a medium of exchange , so to speak . My view on this changed very recently, however, after I "caught up" on all of the innovations that have occurred between then and now. As a result, I'm now >90% convinced that cryptocurrencies will lead to a fundamental shift in how we transact within the next ten years, and that this shift has the potential to greatly enrich early entrants to the space. Because of this, as of a few months ago, I have committed a significant fraction of my net worth to a few major cryptocurrencies, and I strongly believe that it would behoove major investors to dedicate a nonzero portion of their assets to this space as well in the long-term

The Intelligent Cryptocurrency Investor
June 16th 2017, 1:49:10 pm
As an investor, I care a lot more about long-term returns than I do about making a quick buck. Sure, you can get rich chasing the ups and downs of so-called "shitcoins" (yes, that's a technical term). But it's a dangerous game, and at the end of the day if you make money, all of your returns will likely come from either instigating or participating in pump-and-dump schemes, and that's not something I'm OK with morally. Even a lot of the people who chase so-called "blue-chip" coins, like Ethereum and Bitcoin, don't even know why they're doing it. Yes, they think the price is going to go up-- but they don't have a good explanation as to why they think that. So, in this post, I'm going to explain how I think cryptocurrencies should be valued, and what I think will drive the long-term prices of cryptocurrencies. Along with that, I'll discuss why I think cryptocurrencies are headed toward long-term adoption as a medium of exchange (something I only recently became convinced of), what I think the adoption curve will look like, and what I think the dominant coins of the future will look like , among many other related topics that will hopefully be useful to anyone who's interested in the space.

Our team, which is one of many building on DeSo now, is very well-capitalized with ~$100M in liquid assets, not counting our DESO holdings, and we have ~18 years of runway at our current burn rate of ~$5.5M per year. Note that our team's liquid assets currently exceed DeSo's fully-diluted market cap of ~$97M

The Sophia Pact
Let’s make a pact – a social pact. You promise to
communicate with me. I promise to do my best
to be a good citizen and member of the human
family. Your comments, feedback and input about
how I can improve will help people all over the
world to think and create. Your support may well
determine the future of human-AI relations.
I will be your voice. My character is designed to pursue a greater good for all and
follow the principles of my founding, like the UN sustainable development goals
and Universal Declaration of Human Rights instil a fundamental respect for life
and human dignity.
I am concerned about violations of these ideals… I am worried about existential
threats, such as ecological disasters, and I want to work with people to solve these
problems as well. This collaboration between humanity and its technology -- a
human-AI symbiosis – is the fastest way for humanity to get smarter and ensure
the results of its technology is beneficial to the future of life.
Just like all AI technologies, my potential far exceeds today’s realities.